PITTSBURGH STEELERS
GET: CB Joe Haden, WR Justin Hunter, CB Coty Sensabaugh, DE Tyson Alualu, TE Vance McDonald
LOSE: TE Ladarius Green, WR Markus Wheaton, RB DeAngelo Williams WR Sammie Coates, CB Justin Gilbert, QB Zach Mettenberger, TE David Johnson, CB Senquez Golson
RE-SIGNS: WR Antonio Brown, RB Le’Veon Bell, OT Alejandro Villanueva, LB James Harrison, LB Vince Williams, QB Landry Jones
DRAFT: 1st round: OLB T.J. Watt, Wisconsin 2nd round: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC 3rd round: CB Cam Sutton, Tennessee RB James Conner, Pittsburgh 4th round: QB Josh Dobbs, Tennessee 5th round: CB Brian Allen, Utah 6th round: LS Colin Holba, Louisville 7th round: DE Keion Adams, Western Michigan
SUMMARY: An offense as dominant as the Pittsburgh Steelers is hard to stop and with nearly all of those pieces coming back in 2017, it’s hard to see that dominance waning. Pittsburgh was seventh in total yardage (5th pass, 14th rush) but could still use improvement in a vital category: points per game. Last year, they were tied for tenth with Buffalo (yes, that Buffalo) with 24.9 ppg.
Why is that? A very good question. In eight home games last year, the Steelers scored 226 points, an average of 28.3 per home game. Across a whole season, that would rank them third in the league in points per game, ahead of New England, Green Bay and Dallas. On the road, that total dropped to 173, a 21.6 average. If they played like that over the course of 2016, that would have ranked them 20th in ppg, tied with Detroit and narrowly ahead of Baltimore, a team with much less firepower. As any football expert can tell you, Roethlisberger has struggled on the road these last few years, which bodes poorly for the Steelers when they face weaker competition on the road this year, such as Chicago, Detroit and Indianapolis. However, it also bodes well for them at home, when they face playoff-caliber teams like Minnesota, Tennessee and Green Bay. If the Steelers defense plays as well as they did last year (20.4 ppg, 10th-best; 38 sacks, ninth) and continue their bend-don’t-break philosophy, the Steelers look like a strong Super Bowl candidate in the AFC and one of two teams that have a roster capable of topping powerhouse New England.
Bell, Brown and Bryant all look like fantasy picks with high upside this year.
SCHEDULE PROJECTED RECORD: 10-6
Week 1: @CLE Week 2: vs. MIN Week 3: @CHI Week 4: @BAL Week 5: vs. JAC Week 6: @KC Week 7: vs. CIN Week 8: @DET Week 9: BYE Week 10: @IND Week 11: vs. TEN Week 12: vs. GB Week 13: @CIN Week 14: vs. BAL Week 15: vs. NE Week 16: @HOU Week 17: vs. CLE
BALTIMORE RAVENS
GET: FS Tony Jefferson, WR Jeremy Maclin, CB Brandon Carr, OT Austin Howard, OL Tony Bergstrom, CB Brandon Boykin, RB Danny Woodhead, TE Ben Watson
LOSE: RT Ricky Wagner, LB Zachary Orr, LB Elvis Dumervil, DT Timmy Jernigan, OL John Urschel, TE Dennis Pitta, CB Kyle Arrington, C Jeremy Zuttah, RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, TE Crockett Gillmore
RE-SIGNS: NT Brandon Williams
DRAFT: 1st round: CB Marlon Humphrey, Alabama 2nd round: OLB Tyus Bowser, Houston 3rd round: DT Chris Wormley, Michigan OLB Tim Williams, Alabama 4th round: G Nico Siragusa, San Diego State 5th round: T Jermaine Eluemunor, Texas A&M 6th round: S Chuck Clark, Virginia Tech
SUMMARY: The injury bug has hit Baltimore hard. Promising corner Tavon Young tore his ACL during OTAs and will miss the season. RB Kenneth Dixon and LB Albert McClellan are other notable contributors who will start 2017 on injured reserve. You’ll see unproven names along the offensive and defensive line, including 2013 sixth-rounder Ryan Jensen at center, tackle James Hurst, 2015 third-rounder Carl Davis, 2016 second-round linebacker Kamalei Correa and 2016 fifth-round linebacker Matthew Judon. The Ravens draft class is likely to see action on the field sooner rather than later, especially corner Marlon Humphrey, a likely nickel corner and Tyus Bowser, who will force pressure on the edge.
Last year, Joe Flacco threw the pigskin 672 times, one fewer than NFL-leader Drew Brees. Despite that, Joe threw only 20 touchdowns, a number that must increase if Baltimore wants a chance at a playoff spot. His 6.42 yards per attempt was 27th in the league last year, though this is likely due to the scheme offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg has implemented, an attack predicated on the short passing game (Flacco threw within five yards of the line of scrimmage on 56.8 percent of his passes, second-most behind chronic drag route addict Sam Bradford). Regardless, Flacco’s numbers weren’t pretty. An 83.5 passer rating was good for 24th last year. Even Trevor Siemian managed an 84.6.
We can make all the jokes about whether Flacco is elite but what is becoming a concern based on fact is Flacco’s bloated contract is punishing the Ravens right now on and off the field. Flacco had a cap hit of $22.55 last year and that number will continue to go up until 2021. One historical Super Bowl run is not worth sinking your team for the next seven years. Injuries are a concern, but can only be blamed so much.
On the positive side, it seems heavily unlikely that Flacco manages less than 25 this year with the addition of Jeremy Maclin and the return of a hopefully fully recuperated Breshad Perriman, who needs to show once and for all why the Ravens spent a first round pick on him back in 2015. It would also be great if Baltimore could get a running game (averaged 91.4 per game last year, 28th) which would surely help them put more points on the scoreboard (21.4 ppg last year, 21st).
Baltimore’s defense has to copy their numbers from last year, but improve on their pass defense (8th total yards, 23rd pass, 4th rush, 18.9 ppg). Those numbers will be hard to duplicate with youngsters on the starting roster, but is doable. All these things have to come together for them to win a postseason bid and even more would have to happen for them to dethrone Pittsburgh, though a win at home against the Steelers is a virtual certainty.
Mike Wallace is the best fantasy pickup this year from Baltimore. With Maclin now drawing attention from the slot, Wallace’s 14.1 yards per reception, which was already 24th in the league last year, could go higher.
SCHEDULE PROJECTED RECORD: 8-8
Week 1: @CIN Week 2: vs. CLE Week 3: @JAC Week 4: vs. PIT Week 5: @OAK Week 6: vs. CHI Week 7: @MIN Week 8: vs. MIA Week 9: @TEN Week 10: BYE Week 11: @GB Week 12: vs. HOU Week 13: vs. DET Week 14: @PIT Week 15: @CLE Week 16: vs. IND Week 17: vs. CIN
CINCINNATI BENGALS
GET: G Andre Smith, LB Kevin Minter, CB Bene Benwikere
LOSE: OT Andrew Whitworth, G Kevin Zeitler, LB Rey Maualuga, OT Eric Winston
RE-SIGNS: CB Dre Kirkpatrick, WR Brandon LaFell, RB Cedric Peerman
DRAFT: 1st round: WR John Ross, Washington 2nd round: RB Joe Mixon, Oklahoma 3rd round: DE Jordan Willis, Kansas State 4th round: DE Carl Lawson, Auburn WR Josh Malone, Tennessee DT Ryan Glasgow, Michigan 5th round: K Jake Elliott, Memphis C J.J. Dielman, Utah 6th round: LB Jordan Evans, Oklahoma CB Brandon Wilson, Houston 7th round: TE Mason Schreck, Buffalo
SUMMARY: I have the same problem with Cincinnati that I’ve had with them for going on three years now: they don’t have a number two receiver. A.J. Green might be one of the most undervalued players in this league. They had a real chance to not only win a playoff game but contend for a championship a few years ago, but the lack of help in the passing game cost them both of those accolades. Cincinnati should have held onto Mohammed Sanu, who demonstrated his ability during Green’s absence, but as Cincy has come to do, they let another opportunity slip through their fingers. Let’s not forget Marvin Jones played for that team as well.
This year, they went heavy on the offensive side of the ball in the draft, selecting speedster John Ross and Tennessee pass catcher Josh Malone. We’ll see if that adds up to anything. An interesting stat: Dalton was a below-average deep passer, ranking 21st in the league with a 38.3 accuracy percentage. Ross’ big-play potential is fully reliant on Dalton bettering that ranking this year.
The Red Rifle wasn’t guns blazing last year either. After his best year in 2015, in which he had a career best 66.1 completion percentage, an 8.42 ypa, 25/7 touchdown-interception ratio and a 106.3 passer rating, second to only Russell Wilson, he imploded, throwing a measly 18 touchdowns last year. Trevor Siemian threw 18 last year.
Dalton’s performance also occurred behind a strong offensive line that lost two key cogs in Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler this offseason, putting only more pressure on Dalton to perform.
The front office, clearly not excited about Jeremy Hill sitting in the bottom 10 in yards per attempt (2015: 3.6 ypc, third-worst. 2016: 3.8 ypc, t-10th) drafted another shady character to add to the toxic duo of Vontaze Burfict and Adam Jones (honorable mention: Josh Shaw): Joe Mixon. Giovanni Bernard is likely to stay involved on passing downs while Hill is a short-yardage resort.
The defense is the biggest concern with this team. It hasn’t been the same since Zimmer’s departure to Minnesota after the 2013 season, minus the 2015 season, when the team outpaced expectations. In 2014 and 2016, Cincy was 20th and 21st against the rush. They weren’t much better against the pass in those years either (20th and 17th). They also haven’t gotten consistent pressure on opposing offenses (last in sacks in ’14 (20), 19th in ’16 (33)). They were eighth in points against last year, but the dam is cracking and if you thought last year was a flood, wait until you see what happens when that dam breaks.
On a positive note, Dalton’s likely to improve on 18 touchdown passes. A.J. Green remains the player to have in Cincinnati for fantasy. Bernard is likely to be nice in PPR leagues and if you’re willing to take a risk on Eifert’s injury history, he could provide a nice payday. Behind a revamped offensive line, I’m unlikely to add Mixon and I think the stats above demonstrate why you should avoid the Cincinnati defense.
SCHEDULE PROJECTED RECORD: 6-10
Week 1: vs. BAL Week 2: vs. HOU Week 3: @GB Week 4: @CLE Week 5: vs. BUF Week 6: BYE Week 7: @PIT Week 8: vs. IND Week 9: @JAC Week 10: @TEN Week 11: @DEN Week 12: vs. CLE Week 13: vs. PIT Week 14: vs. CHI Week 15: @MIN Week 16: vs. DET Week 17: @BAL
CLEVELAND BROWNS
GET: CB Jason McCourty, S Calvin Pryor, G Kevin Zeitler, WR Kenny Britt, C J.C. Tretter, WR Sammie Coates
LOSE: WR Terrelle Pryor, G John Greco, CB Joe Haden, C Cameron Erving, QB Brock Osweiler, TE Gary Barnidge, LB Demario Davis, K Cody Parkey, QB Robert Griffin III, WR Josh Cribbs
RE-SIGNS: RB Isaiah Crowell, G Joel Bitonio, LB Jamie Collins, LB Christian Kirksey, P Britton Colquitt
DRAFT: 1st round: DE Myles Garrett, Texas A&M S Jabrill Peppers, Michigan TE David Njoku, Miami 2nd round: QB DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame 3rd round: DT Larry Ogunjobi, Charlotte 4th round: CB Howard Wilson, Houston 5th round: OT Roderick Johnson, Florida State 6th round: Caleb Brantley, Florida 7th round: K Zane Gonzalez, Arizona State RB Matthew Dayes, North Carolina State
SUMMARY: The Cleveland Browns, for the first time in a while, will be an interesting team to watch. New management at the top (GM Sashi Brown, Chief Strategy Officer Paul DePodesta) have given Cleveland the type of intrigue and publicity they desperately need. They showed some of their wits when they accepted the tragedy of a contract that Brock Osweiler carried with him and a second and sixth round draft choice from Houston as a “Thank you for getting rid of this embarrassment,” all in exchange for one of Cleveland’s fourth rounders. The Browns, who have endless cap space, then simply cut Osweiler before the beginning of the year but had picks to show for it.
Their draft went well, selecting Myles Garrett, hybrid safety Jabrill Peppers, Miami product David Njoku and Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer. Kizer has earned the starting job going into Week 1 and now, after all Cleveland has done, they have to hope he doesn’t flounder like the 27 other quarterbacks before him.
Among high points for this season sits running back Isaiah Crowell. If Cleveland has had anything the last few years, it’s been a stout offensive line and it’s only gotten stronger with the addition of G Kevin Zeitler. Crowell was great last year, maintaining a clip of 4.8 ypc, a top-ten average. Expect Crowell to surpass his 198 carries last year as Cleveland puts together a dangerous running game.
Kizer will likely face early struggles with Kenny Britt as a number one target opposite Corey Coleman, only leading to more opportunities for Crowell. Teams that have a poor run defense, such as Cincinnati (21st), Indianapolis (25), and Chicago (27th), will struggle with Cleveland this year. I expect more surprises from Cleveland than blowouts.
If I haven’t mentioned it enough, Crowell’s a great fantasy pickup. As in RB1 status.
SCHEDULE PROJECTED RECORD: 5-11
Week 1: vs. PIT Week 2: @BAL Week 3: @IND Week 4: vs. CIN Week 5: NYJ Week 6: @HOU Week 7: vs. TEN Week 8: vs. MIN Week 9: BYE Week 10: @DET Week 11: vs. JAC Week 12: @CIN Week 13: @LAC Week 14: vs. GB Week 15: vs. BAL Week 16: @CHI Week 17: @PIT
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